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MarketsChainalysis
War, Shutdowns, and Licensing Reshape MENA’s $443 Billion Crypto Economy
战争、断网与牌照重塑中东北非4430亿美元加密经济
Chainalysis ties MENA's flat $443 billion crypto economy to war, shutdowns, and licensing, so readers should weigh which of those forces regulators can actually control versus which they cannot.
Judgment
UAE regulators and Türkiye’s licensing authorities face the core tradeoff: whether to prioritize attracting institutional capital or preserving retail access as activity shifts wallet-to-wallet. The UAE’s 32% growth to $104.8 billion and Türkiye’s licensing transition show those goals can pull apart.
Basis
Chainalysis reports MENA’s crypto economy was essentially flat at $443.3 billion, a 1.4% decline from $449.6 billion. It says the UAE grew 32% to $104.8 billion, closing to 73% of Türkiye’s size and positioning the UAE to overtake Türkiye as MENA’s largest crypto economy as early as the 2027 period. Türkiye’s $144.5 billion economy contracted modestly as its licensing transition reshaped the service side; domestic peer-to-peer stablecoin volume grew fivefold to $3.56 billion. Iran’s bitcoin transactions fell as much as 90% during internet blackouts but climbed back as users adapted. Mechanism: in Türkiye, retail users bypassed licensed exchanges wallet-to-wallet; in the UAE, institutional capital concentrated in a durable regulated hub. Sixteen of 24 MENA markets grew, but Türkiye and the UAE together make up 56% of the regional economy and moved in opposite directions.
- MENA total$443.3B
- Türkiye$144.5B
- UAE$104.8B
Unclear It does not say how much of Türkiye’s $144.5 billion shifted wallet-to-wallet, nor what portion of the UAE’s $104.8 billion came from institutional capital.
Next Watch whether the next Geography of Crypto Report shows the UAE surpassing Türkiye’s $144.5 billion, which Chainalysis says could happen as early as the 2027 period.