Bitcoin Faces First Back-to-Back Annual Losses in History, But There's a Catch

Judgment

Bitcoin holders deciding whether to hold through year-end now face a clear threshold: a year-end close below roughly $87,500 locks in the first back-to-back annual loss, but the roughly 21% combined decline is milder than 2018 or 2022.

Basis

Decrypt reports Bitcoin finished 2025 down 6.34% and has lost another 15.65% in 2026, trading around $73,850 on Nov 10; it needs about 18.5% to recover the roughly $87,500 annual opening price before Dec 31. The article says every prior negative calendar year was followed by a positive one, but the current two-year combined loss is approximately 21% after compounding, far smaller than the 73.56% drop in 2018 or 64.27% drop in 2022. It also notes a peak-to-trough move from approximately $126,000 in October 2025 to below $58,000 during 2026, exceeding 50%, so calendar-year framing understates the drawdown. Analysts cited in the piece point to institutional investors, spot ETFs, and deeper liquidity as possible explanations for smaller bear-market drawdowns, though those changes have not eliminated major crashes.