Bitcoin Hits 12-Week Low as Fed Rate Fears Undo Most of Summer Rally

Judgment

Bitcoin holders deciding whether to trim exposure before the Dec. 8-9 Fed meeting now face a concrete tradeoff: the source shows a 91.9% futures-implied chance of a 25bp hike and six ETF outflow sessions, so waiting for confirmation risks further downside, while selling locks in a 16% gain over the late-June low.

Basis

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said inflation had spread beyond energy and tariffs and that “we are not” on a path back to 2%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supported raising rates by at least 25bp and set a threshold: if core CPI was around 0.3% or higher, a stronger move may be needed. The report then showed core CPI at exactly 0.3%, above the 0.2% forecast. Futures-based probabilities showed 91.9% for a quarter-point hike and 8.1% for a half-point hike. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had six consecutive sessions of net outflows totaling about $1.49 billion from Nov. 5 to Nov. 12. Higher rates make interest-bearing investments relatively more attractive, while weakening ETF demand and forced liquidations can accelerate declines when buyers are scarce.